← Pikku Play Store championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Pikku Play Store championship
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
56.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1394
· median 1394
· range 1225–1563
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1236
Q3 1442
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
